War in Nagorno-Karabakh: What would it mean for Georgia?
More broadly, last April’s fighting not only confirmed the “frozen” conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh had entered a new, much more serious combat phase, but also revealed a new level of risk of upsetting the already delicate state of regional security and stability.
Beyond the intensity of the fighting, the April 2016 “four-day war” was significant for another reason. More specifically, for the first time, a large-scale Azerbaijani military offensive succeeded in achieving the limited objective of seizing and securing territory.
Moreover, in the wake of that fighting, the security landscape has changed considerably, with serious implications for both Georgia and broader regional stability. This altered security landscape is defined by five underlying military components: