Polls of experts and informed observers, initiated by Georgian Institute of Politics, will forecast the prospects of political parties in the upcoming elections, providing comments on the ratings given to each party.
Election forecasting is becoming an increasingly important issue in the national narrative about all sorts of elections. Indeed, reducing uncertainty about which party or political block will win on election-day can be an important strategic advantage for decision-makers in the government, private sector as we all in politics. Election polls receive increased attention in public debates in Georgia, but what do they really say about the likely election outcomes? Our project will develop a corridor of reasonable expectations for citizens, by discussing and contextualizing various polling outcomes. Through this project, citizens, researchers, political actors and journalists will have impartial election insight and the tools to understand polls, and their respective strengths and weaknesses, in more detail.
This expert poll builds on existing surveys, and provides an aggregate interpretation of the likely results. Many of the people who entered their estimates have more than 10 years of experience in working with polls and Georgian elections. These engaged observers and experts were approached in a number of different ways, and the GIP team cleaned the collected data based on established principles.
By providing corridors of expectations, the poll helps to focus the discussion on likely scenarios and how to prepare for them. The polls will be conducted and published regularly, to reflect the changes in party ratings and offer analysis of party competition dynamics in Georgia.
Expert polls is made possible by the support of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).
- What is this about? Expert Polls, an initiative by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) collects views from 30-50 experts, and presents these views and opinions to the public in an accessible way. The initiative started on October 1, 2016.
- Who is behind this? The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP). Find out more about GIP and its activities on the website.
- What is the advantage of expert polls? Taken together, the views of various experts in most cases will be better than the views of any single expert. For elections, collecting views gives us a good estimate of likely outcomes.
- Why try to predict at all? Identifying the most likely scenarios (while being prepared for others) helps to focus the attention on where it matters. Good estimates can help people to plan, and be prepared.
- Is any single view right? We believe that reasonable people often can have divergent views on an issue, and that everyone wins if they listen to each other. In line with that, expert views show a diversity of views.
- Who are the experts? For our polls we try to recruit a range of opinions, from across the political spectrum, local and international. We reach out to these experts through a variety of means.
- How many experts and engaged observers take part in your polls? We typically try to engage 30-50 experts in our polls. This gives us a good range of opinions. More participants typically do not add much diversity.
- Can I join the experts? If you have a track record of thoughtful contributions, do get in touch and let us know about your work.
- How do you deal with people trying to distort the results? We have a number of ways of cleaning the estimates, based on 10+ years of experience of working with polls.
- Why not just use the results from surveys of citizens? Surveys are incredibly useful tools. For predicting election outcomes, however, they have several major limitations.
- What is your role model? One of our role models is the website FiveThirtyEight by American pollster Nate Silver. His aggregation of polls has regularly yielded accurate results. We are adapting this model to the Georgian context.
- Who funds this activity? This activity is currently funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, for when your project from October 1, 2016
- What about questions not answered here? Get in touch and let us know. We’ll be happy to answer your questions.